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10/19/2008

Nassim Nicholas; TUES Tuesday Morning Corporation

Nassim Nicholas; always entertaining and provides useful insight


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABXPICWjFIo


Discount Variety Stores

How does TUES (Tuesday Morning Corp) compare to some other publicly held discount variety stores?

TUES was below 2 the other day so I bought a few shares and will hold back until there is further weakness in the stock price that last traded at $2.42. In the past the investment would have been a high probability event to revert back to its historical valuation. But the future profitability is too uncertain for me to bet heavy.


EV/Sales = .25
YOY Qtry Rev Growth = 75%
P/S or EV/Sale is selling at a discount to the historical valuation

GP/EV = 112%

EBITDA/EV = 18.68%
OI-Taxes/EV = 8.66%
FCF/EV = 12.168%
CFFO/EV = 129.92%

Share outstanding have remained steady for many years at 41.82 million shares outstanding.

The stock is down 62% over the prior 52 weeks and the stock price has declined more dramatically than the other more expensive discount variety retailers.

6.20% of the float is short; this is in the negative territory but compares favorably to their peers.

Per Share Data for Tuesday
Current price 2.45
EV/MC = 224%
OI = .72
Cash + AR – Ttl Liab = 3.44
GP = 6.09


TUES is cheap and currently trading at a huge discount to its historcial valuation