tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1574061626436807984.post7896713905689811290..comments2017-05-03T13:29:44.586-07:00Comments on ShadowStock ... Deep Value, Contrarian Investing: Nano cap value dividend idea; 05/09/10ShadowStockhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07479687972479864521noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1574061626436807984.post-38235994706510697632010-05-11T06:17:05.236-07:002010-05-11T06:17:05.236-07:00It will definitely be on my watch list to take adv...It will definitely be on my watch list to take advantage of in the event of any seismic market events as it looks like in 09 it would have made an excellent cyclical/net net value play. I think if it got down to around 11 it would be 2/3 of NNWC based on quick scan. I'm seeing on cash flow statement they've got about $12M rolling over in CDs. Very healthy B/S. I've already bought one of your stocks. - WarrenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1574061626436807984.post-60853230854373334642010-05-10T20:35:03.951-07:002010-05-10T20:35:03.951-07:00Hi Warren
I agree with your useful comments and a...Hi Warren<br /><br />I agree with your useful comments and appreciate the insight. After looking at the idea I quickly realized that “The stock in my opinion is close to being fairly valued at today’s prices but if operational performance prior 2009 is achieve the stock price should significantly outperform the general market.” There were many points that would prevent the stock from moving quickly but decided to post as someone may find it useful. It may be in the the circle of competence for some investors.<br /> <br />Thanks<br />JohnShadowStockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07479687972479864521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1574061626436807984.post-83986099859580514782010-05-10T20:17:52.792-07:002010-05-10T20:17:52.792-07:00If at fair value then seems unGraham like to specu...If at fair value then seems unGraham like to speculate over how the stock may or may not perform or whether it will return to it's glory days. Granted, I'm only 55 pages into The Intelligent Investor and maybe beging dogmatic. However, by management's own admission they are in an intensely competitive business. I get a BV of 21.82 and shaving off 25% get $16.37. CVR today closed at $16.20 so agreed not much MOS in that regard. Back of envelope, taking 8 as the low end of their PE range over the past ten years, if they clawed their way back to 2007 results, earing net income of $1.27million they would have a market cap of $10.16 million. They have a $15.65 million market cap now. To justify their current market cap assuming a PE of 8 they would need to earn $1.956 million. I think they only surpassed this back in early 2000. If the market assigns them a PE of 30 they can sustain current market cap on $509K of net income. I can get a prospective 4% dividend (or could last week) off VGK so I don't know I'm seeing a lot that is compelling about CVR based on my extremely diminutive knowledge of value investing. Let be clear though, I absolutely love your blog. Keep up the outstanding work. I bow deeply. -WarrenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com