8/25/2009

Ideas 08/24/09

Some the following have been introduced in the past but the market has moved them higher.

But given the large cash balances, low debt, strong capital structure, 65%- 38% of the 5 year high, respectable profitability they deserve to be monitored.

MDF, industry = Health Care Plans, 38% off 5 year high, YTD return 38%, below 52 week high 14.40%, 3 month return 15.70%, average 4 year ROIC 24.75%, EV = 78 million, market cap 52 week change 3.1 %, off 52 week low 132%, Qtrly YO Y revenue growth 5.90%, OI/EV = 22.58%, short as a percentage of float 5.90%, EBITDA/EV = 24%

See more ideas and additional data on MDF, OPTV, DGII, NATH

Link

5 comments:

Carrigaline said...

Maybe it's worth taking a look at some of your other older ideas? I'd be interested in hearing what you think about ELST, SIDG and BWTL today. SIDG has been my most frustrating investment. I listened in on the last conference call and there was no mention whatsoever at why the shareprice has been tanking in the last few months.

Haven't bought yet, but been looking at BWTL as it's at the 75c mark. This seems quite cheap since historically it always seemed to generate 10c or so of earnings. According to the last quarterly filing, it still has a good cash balance, well refinanced debt and an ok business.

Great to see ELST back in profit in the last quarter with the share price starting to recover.

Also, did you catch this video by Paul Sonkin. He talks about one of your old ideas (RLOG).

http://streetcapitalist.com/2009/08/10/my-interview-with-paul-sonkin/

ShadowStock said...

Hi Carrigaline

These are some of my thoughts on the stocks you mentioned, ELST, BWTL, RLOG, SIDG.PK,


SIDG.PK; I purchased shares against my better judgment. The company is highly levered and that can cut both ways, as you know. In our case it has cut the wrong way. The industry is in a horrific situation and the bank, BAC, has stepped in to demand full payment of their 18 million remaining loan. The full payment has been amended to Sept 1? and the situation will be revisited. It looks like the shareholders may be taken out and they will need to reorganize, not good for the common stock holders. But things could turn around with new biz from customers. 3 customers account for about 65% of their total revenue. The top 10 represents about 95%. Not good in terms of risk.

Management is talented and I believe are honest and straight forward. I’ve spoken with the CFO and I was impressed but the current environment will not care if management is talented. It won’t be easy in this environment and no tarp money is being spent on infrastructure, very sad.

ELST shown some life and I’m not expecting any miracles but instead just modest profitability.

I was buying BWTL.PK the other day at .75 , .81 and .85. The company is in on the pink sheets but they have value from real estate, potential normalized earnings and cash generation.For the year ended 2007 they generated 1.208 million in cash from operations and couple this with the real estate and a current equity value of 18.991 million or 4.17 per share versus the current price of .85 cents. It’s an interesting idea but my expectations are low.

RLOG is another tough stock. Yes they have a nice economic moat but their debt in Canadian dollars and could hurt the company as the dollar weakens in the future. I own shars of RLOG and have been buying ~2.75.

Best
John

john@shadowstock.com

slinj said...

SIDG is risky play at this point. It is a good business, would be really sad to see it go under. Tells you how important cash is when time goes tough.

RLOG's interest payment (debt level) and CapEx makes it not so attractive. I pays 8MM of Capex and 4-6MM of interest. That plus the currency risk means the company has to operate quite well top line to generate good result for share holders, which it might be able to. But it does not have the track record to show.

BWTL is interesting to look into. A simple return to normalcy and realization of its tangible asset would push the stock higher. I like this type of safe play.

jimmymac said...

John,
Have been looking around for some undervalued micro-caps and found an interesting one in TSC. Market cap is only 10 million, but it has 8 mill in cash and only 2.5 mill in total liabilities. Has earnings of about 0.76 million p.a. and pays almost 4% dividend.
Any thoughts?
Jimmymac

ShadowStock said...

jimmymac

Clearly a deep value based on the stats, cant give you more info at this time. Sorry.

John