The table below shows the disconnect between value creation versus price declines and additional comparisons to Peloton and NAISC (339920) Sporting and Athletic Goods Manufacturing.
ShadowStock ... Deep Value, Contrarian Investing
"There Are No Bad Assets Just Bad Prices." Exploiting Market Anomalies with Neglected Data
4/25/2022
Nautilus: Priced below Liquidation
The table below shows the disconnect between value creation versus price declines and additional comparisons to Peloton and NAISC (339920) Sporting and Athletic Goods Manufacturing.
8/11/2021
Spark Networks (LOV), A Risky Value Outlier
4/06/2021
Scheid Vineyards: An Extreme Undervaluation Hiding in the Dark
Scheid Vineyards produces and markets wine. And, their operations cover around 4,200 acreages, with ten vineyards offering 29 grape varieties. For the first 15 years, Scheid was a grape farmer selling its harvest to wineries. The company was established in 1971 when Al Scheid acquired his first property in Monterey County.
52 Week Range= $13.79 - $23.25 ; 52-Week Chg = -25.00%
TB Per Share=29.12; P/TB=.52, EV/Rev=2.58 ; P/S=.25
I believe my numbers are accurate, backing into the market value using the shares outstanding. But multiple financial sites have different MC values.
Google finance Market Cap = 11.03M, Yahoo=32.881M, OTCMarkets = 11.461M,Morningstar = 15.36M, Reuters = 11.03M
I am bullish as it trades below intrinsic value. But, RECOGNIZE that offsetting the asset's fair value is a capital-destroying family-held company. For example, shareholder equity declined -30.33% or -11.206M over the prior 24 prior quarters. EBIT aggregated over the same 24 prior quarters was -10.564M, EBITDA +24.433M.
Scheid Vineyards has much higher ownership of vineyard acreage to enterprise value versus their public peers.
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Opportunities:
In addition to Vineyards and a state-of-the-art processing plant, there is an additional 123 acres of non-agricultural land now zoned for residential development in Greenfield City Monterey County, California. The market value (my guess) is around 10M to 15M.
Vision Statement: "By 2025, Scheid Family Wines will become one of the most recognized wine producers in quality, innovation, and sustainability in the world."
The assets trade at a fraction of market value. Appreciation from real estate and modern production facilities (new wind turbine power) provides an inflation hedge and cushion to help fund/stabilize as they further develop retail/commercial operations.
Strategic shift to a branded business, emphasizes finished goods over selling inputs. I wrote my thoughts above before Friday's 04/02/21 announcement. "Scheid Family Wines Announces Sale of Three Vineyard Properties." "announced today that it sold three of its vineyard parcels for $33,000,000 in consideration, which includes the buyer assuming $20,000,000 of the Company's debt that was secured by the properties. "
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scheid-family-wines-announces-sale-100000205.html
A positive valuation discount compared to its closest public peers; CWGL, WVVI, New IPO NAPA, and Treasury Wine Estates ASX:TWE. Further, SVIN multiples are near historical lows for P/B, P/S and have a higher land and building ownership to its enterprise value.
Catalysts:
Management makes financial statements and operational transparency more accessible to the public. The market will slowly recognize its value.
LONG:SVIN
11/14/2020
Tandy Leather’s delisting creates an extreme value opportunity
4/16/2020
Mohawk Grp (MWK) - The Renaissance Technologies of CPG E-commerce
Mohawk Group Holdings (MWK) is SPECULATIVE! Deloitte issued a going concern qualification raising doubt regarding MWK's ability to continue next year.
Recognized for exceptional growth and innovation (Inc. 5000 2019 as Fastest Growing Companies ranked 622, Financial Times ranked 114).
Description:
AIMEE™ is the name of their proprietary AI/ML internally developed E-commerce platform.
Management expects 20 new products in the first quarter of 2020. And double the products launched in 2019. For 2020, management is projecting revenue of $160 million to $170 million, and expects a positive adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2020.
Note: The April 29, 8k published after article.
“FURTHER, WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEKING TO PRESERVE OUR LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES THROUGH VARIOUS ACTIONS WHICH MAY INCLUDE NEGOTIATING THE DELAY OF PAYMENTS TO CERTAIN VENDORS THE EFFECT OF WHICH COULD HAVE AN ADVERSE IMPACT ON OUR BUSINESS, INCLUDING OUR RELATIONSHIPS WITH THESE VENDORS.”
This significantly raises the risk of holding or buying the stock!
12/19/2019
Spark Networks SE (LOV) Contrarian Musings
Affinitas GmbH was a small, fast-growing private European company. Affinitas's past financial success financed the merger. It listed on NYSE as Spark Networks (LOV). LOV before the merger known for Jdate. Jdate (LOV) had historical periods of outsize free cash flow. During the ~ two years before the merger financial performance faltered from outdated technology. Zoosk was a private, mismanaged, and failed future IPO. But, when managed, online dating is an asset-light FCF machine. Now NYSE: LOV is the second largest online dating company in North America. The new organization has experienced,talented,proven management.
LOV is a falling knife that doesn't screen well. A nano cap,low p/s and down 59% over the past six months with a historical record of strong outsize free cash flow. Spark Networks, NYSE: LOV is now German based headquarter after the merger.
The price decline began after the initial positive reaction for the Zoosk acquisition. LOV stock price crushed from Affinitas and Zoosk few but substantial long term initial investors sold after accruing years of long term gains. Management released an open letter on the stock decline (click). The six-month ~60% price drop creates an excellent buying opportunity.
Spark Networks has over one million global monthly paying subscribers. It also expects to achieve more than $50 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2020.The current 111.84 million market capitalization undervalues those customer metrics. Headquartered in Germany, Spark Networks is now America's second-largest dating company.
Spark Networks (LOV) is a portfolio of dating sites. Zoosk, EliteSingles, Jdate, Christian Mingle, eDarling, JSwipe, SilverSingles, and others encompass the company (click). Spark Networks formed when Affinitas GmbH and Spark Networks merged in 2017. Zoosk added in 2019. Affinitas GmbH a small German startup with no presence in North America. But, over the last few years created an NYSE-listed business with over $300 million in total revenue. Its now the second-largest player in North America.
Value institutions purchased shares above the current price during the third quarter of 2019.
Canaan Partner purchased 4,077,777 shares at an average price of $8.23 during quarter 3, 2019. Down -47.14% from current price. LOV represents 70% of its total portfolio value.
HARBOURVEST PARTNERS new holding during 2019, Q3 502,576 shares acquired at an average price of $8.21.
Osmium Partners added 166,332 shares to raise its stake to 1,412,284 shares at an average price of $7.14. Represent 9.77% of its portfolio and or 5.43% of shares outstanding.
Deer VII own 2,045,318 shares at an average price of $8.21 or 7.86% of shares outstanding or 13.06% of their portfolio.
Spark Networks (LOV)could use further analysis, such as the Zoosk financing details(click). But at this time I'm comfortable with the odds of a future higher stock price.
Spark story from their website.
Long: LOV