4/05/2011

Deep Value Stocks to consider

by putting on a watch list or determine the current appropriateness for adding to your portfolio.
This list will be without many details for tonight but I will follow up tomorrow with supporting data. All ideas below represent value based on my current work and some were introduced in the prior posts, ie PDII, NUTR, BKR, and UACL. click on symbol to view prior posts
Hopefully you can find some value with tonights post.

Click for a quick list of quotes for the symbols below
HOFT $11.97 Home Furnishings & Fixtures
Mean reversion candidate with  a reasonbale valuation that was historical a well managed company hit by the econonmy. Posted a -27.32% 52 week stock price return with a YOY positive quarterly revenue change. Share count reduction from 2006
LYTS $7.28 Business Equipment
Free cash flow margin of ~6%, current EV/Reveune trading at a historical discount. YOY quarterly sales increase of 7.80% with a 1.53% price change. 22% held by insiders along with value institutions such as Royce at 12%. Current Div yield 2.80%
NCIT $24.32 Information Technology Services
historically cheap on an EV/Revenue of .76 for the TTM compared to the averge .98 for 2006 to TTM.
Tiny float/outstanding shares = 43.57 %, strong positive insider buying 2011, YOY quarterly revenue improvment of 36.60%, 52 week change of -13.64. OI/EV = 8.74%, EBITDA/EV = 9.97%, FCF/EV = 4.65%, ROIC = 14%
NUTR $15.46 Drug Related Products

read prior post : also other mentions

PDII $9.36 Business Services

read prior post


SGMA $12.78 Printed Circuit Boards

52 week change -10.58%, Stable share count from 2006 coupled with an increase in cash and reduction of total liablities, FCF margin for 2010 FCF/Sales = 7.49%
,
SUPX $22.32 Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits

Mean reversion candidate, 52 week return -19.34%, +17.64% YOY quarterly revenue increase, OI-Taxes/EV = 8.35%, share count reduction from 2006, cash increase and total liablities reduced form 2007


BKR $28.94 Management Services

read prior post


UACL $17.07 Trucking

read prior post


AP:    $27.24 Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation

“Ampco-Pittsburgh is a manufacturer and distributor of custom-engineered metal products. The company is divided into two main segments: forged and cast rolls, and air and liquid processing. Ampco?s forged and cast rolls, sold under the names Union Electric Steel and Davy Roll, are marketed primarily to steel and aluminum producers.”

Price 27.24

Enterprise Value = 513,234,000

Market Capitalization = 282,870,000

Dividend Yield = 2.2%

Stable historical share count

19.09 book value with a year over year quarterly revenue increase of 23.60% versus a 52 week price change of only 5.17%;

EV/Revenue TTM = 1.04 trading at a discount compared to the average EV/Revenue from 2006 to TTM of 1.40

32.34% are held by insiders






3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Can't wait to read more of your take on these companies. Thanks for the research. Teresa

ShadowStock said...

Hi Teresa

Made a few comments tonight (see above) to support my value thesis; All companies have a good capital structure and some have the added benefits with a lower enterprise value showing up in ratios like Sales to EV by reducing or maintaining share count , increasing cash balance and reducing liabilities.

Most show a price return far less than the increase in revenues over the past year. Value institution like , Royce, Kennedy Capital, Whitbox, Gamco, and others have positions. Some have strong positive insider buying, most have hi insider ownership
As a group many of these micro cap values have become close fully valued. I have not seen real insider buying of these small value ideas.

Having said that we both know money will be made but very recently I’ve seen my largest moves on the short side. I don’t discuss but there are stocks trading at 10 to 20 times sales that have more than doubled, so I’ve been shorting some of the most ridiculously valued stocks in HOPES of hedging my diversified long portfolio.

Good luck
John

Teresa said...

John, Thanks, we appreciate your insights and hard work. After a bit of research, I bought a couple of your "value based ideas" and did really well. Especially with JVA (70% gain in less than a week!) I hope you are doing well with your investments. Teresa