GES: Guess' Inc. (GES)
Guess?, Inc. designs, markets,
distributes, and licenses apparel and accessories. "As of January 28,
2012, the company directly operated 504 stores in the United States and Canada;
251 stores outside of the United States and Canada; an additional 230
smaller-sized concessions in Asia and Europe; and retail Websites in the United
States, Canada, Europe, and South Korea. Its international licensees and
distributors operated 804 stores outside the United States and Canada; and 119
smaller-sized licensee operated concessions in Asia."
GES has been significantly underperforming the Apparel index. The size of their underperformance
doesn't seem warranted. The Apparel
index posted 16.8 %, 27.14% and 28.05% for the 3 month, YTD and 1 year
performance respectively versus negative results for GES of -11.19%, -5.23% and
-31.27% for the same periods. Far from a perfect stock but at the right price, the
large variance versus the industry index, and significant valuation
improvements using enterprise value versus
sales and book value coupled with strong relatively stable gross margins, ROIC,
near 52 week low and modest top line growth warrants
a closer.
Sales and book value versus the enterprise value per share
continue to improve over several years. Gross margins have been solid around 44%.
ROIC still over 20% for the past few years, 3% sales growth for the quarterly YOY
results.
| 2008-01 | 2009-01 | 2010-01 | 2011-01 | 2012-01 | Current | ||
| Price | 39.65 | 27.45 | 28.22 | 37.87 | 35.75 | 28.06 | |
| EV Per Share | $42.35 | $29.33 | $28.30 | $39.92 | $37.63 | $29.85 | |
| BV Per Share | $7.01 | $8.29 | $11.14 | $11.45 | $12.79 | $12.79 | |
| Sales Per Share | $18.68 | $22.37 | $23.24 | $27.00 | $29.23 | $29.23 | |
| ROIC | 26.23 | 28.00 | 26.23 | 27.49 | 23.53 | 23.53 | |
| GM% | 45.30 | 44.10 | 44.20 | 43.80 | 0.00 | 43.30 | |
| FCF/Sales | 4.30 | 6.62 | 12.96 | 8.98 | 8.91 | 8.91 | |
| EV/Sales | 2.27 | 1.31 | 1.22 | 1.48 | 1.29 | 1.02 | |
| EV/BV | 6.04 | 3.54 | 2.54 | 3.49 | 2.94 | 2.33 | |
| 2008 vs Current | |||||||
| YOY Price Change | -30.77% | 2.81% | 34.21% | -5.61% | -21.51% | -41.29% | |
| YOY EV Change | -30.75% | -3.50% | 41.04% | -5.74% | -20.67% | -41.88% | |
| YOY EV/Sales Change | -72.97% | -7.64% | 17.61% | -14.86% | -26.05% | -122.09% | |
| YOY EV/Book Change | -70.79% | -39.18% | 27.10% | -18.45% | -26.05% | -158.72% | |
| Currrent Div Yield = | 2,70% | ||||||
| Current Price = | $28.06 | ||||||
