10/19/2008

Nassim Nicholas; TUES Tuesday Morning Corporation

Nassim Nicholas; always entertaining and provides useful insight


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABXPICWjFIo


Discount Variety Stores

How does TUES (Tuesday Morning Corp) compare to some other publicly held discount variety stores?

TUES was below 2 the other day so I bought a few shares and will hold back until there is further weakness in the stock price that last traded at $2.42. In the past the investment would have been a high probability event to revert back to its historical valuation. But the future profitability is too uncertain for me to bet heavy.


EV/Sales = .25
YOY Qtry Rev Growth = 75%
P/S or EV/Sale is selling at a discount to the historical valuation

GP/EV = 112%

EBITDA/EV = 18.68%
OI-Taxes/EV = 8.66%
FCF/EV = 12.168%
CFFO/EV = 129.92%

Share outstanding have remained steady for many years at 41.82 million shares outstanding.

The stock is down 62% over the prior 52 weeks and the stock price has declined more dramatically than the other more expensive discount variety retailers.

6.20% of the float is short; this is in the negative territory but compares favorably to their peers.

Per Share Data for Tuesday
Current price 2.45
EV/MC = 224%
OI = .72
Cash + AR – Ttl Liab = 3.44
GP = 6.09


TUES is cheap and currently trading at a huge discount to its historcial valuation

5 comments:

Mark Perkins said...

great blog. I just did a write up on TUES to check out SGC and SMRT. SPAR was a net-net. Nice I actually day traded MCGC the other day. I'm mostly micro-cap value though. I'd like to trade site links if you want.

ShadowStock said...

Thanks for checking on this blog! I’ve just added a link to your work as I will find it important to value investors.

For me, SGC and SMRT are a clear buy in a diversified portfolio. I also did a hit a run with MCGC.

I’ve been buying STMF.PK over the past few days but this is not a traditional value play but a bet on management for the long term. STMF may not survive, RISKY.

There seems to be so many micro cap value stocks.

Mark Perkins said...

let me know what text you want me to put for the link I'm giving you in my blogroll. I'm going to just put Shadow Stock: Deep Value Micro Caps for now.

Mark Perkins said...

oh, I put up how I look for micro-caps under your comment on Stock Pursuit

Mark Perkins said...

Your site is really cool. I was looking at DCU awhile back to. I found it in a Ben Graham net current assets screen. Nobody talks or writes about small-caps unfortunately. It's where all the values are and return potential are.