5/02/2012

Current price at potential large discount to realized value improvements

AFAM: Almost Family Inc

AFAM: 52 week return = -28.37%%

YOY revenue change = 5.70%

Improved valuation changes over several years that may indicate Mr Market has not realized these improvements:
Cash increased from a Dec 2007 balance of 473,222 million to the current 33,693,000:
Liabilities reduced from a Dec 2008 balance of 66,009,806 to the current 44,525,000:
On the negative side shares outstanding did increase from 2008 balance of 7,572,333 to the current 9,360,000 shares outstanding

ROIC TTM = 10.56%, 2010 = 18.13%, 2009 = 17.52%, 2008 = 18.24%, 2007 = 16.00%
Valuation based on Enterprise to revenue or book value has dramatically improved over the 2008 to the TTM but the market has partially ignored.

Current EV to Sales = .7529 versus 1.4497 for the period ending 2008 for a 92% improvement in valuation based on EV to sales.

Current EV to Book = 1.24 versus 3.25 for the period ending 2008 for a 61% improvement in valuation
The stock price has decreased 45% from the current price of $24.51 versus 2008 average of $44.98.
Looking just at the EV per share EV per share was 40.70 2008 and is currently 25.67.


2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 Current
EV Per Share $25.32 $40.70 $30.32 $33.38 $27.34 $25.67
Sales 132,130,056 212,600,271 297,849,000 336,924,000 339,853,000
Sales Per Share 23.597 28.076 34.678 36.027 36.309
EV/Sales 1.0732 1.4497 0.8744 0.9265 0.7529
EV/BV 4.07 3.25 1.75 1.71 1.24
GM% 51.65 53.45 53.48 54.36 50.84
ROIC 16.00 18.24 17.52 18.13 10.56
FCF/Sales 4.86 3.76 8.38 9.55 6.78

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